Thursday, November 09, 2006

Analysis: Why it fell apart for Angelides

By Amy Chance - Bee Political Editor
Published 2:36 am PST Wednesday, November 8, 2006
Story appeared in MAIN NEWS section, Page 16
What was so amazing to some California political operatives in retrospect was just how badly Democratic state Treasurer Phil Angelides did at the polls on Tuesday, given the national tide for his party.
Even as Democrats across the country were taking control of the House of Representatives and threatening to do the same in the Senate, exit pollsters projected Angelides had lost the election by double digits less than five minutes after the polls closed.
Democratic political consultant Gale Kaufman said Angelides could have given Schwarzenegger a run for his money -- if he had ever settled on a consistent campaign theme.
"You had the national current, you had all the right national as well as state issues. (Angelides) had the experience, he had the understanding of the issues," Kaufman said. "So with a campaign that had a solid set of messages ... not only do I think he could have won, but he absolutely should have won."
In his concession speech, Angelides urged supporters to take comfort in the fact that "across this country Democratic values have prevailed."
But political observers had a long list of reasons California Democrats were unable to capitalize by capturing the governorship. They began with the fact that Angelides was a micromanager who essentially ran his own campaign, the political equivalent of the foolish lawyer who represents himself.
Schwarzenegger's celebrity and incumbency clearly played a part, as did his efforts to systematically make amends with groups he battled last year, including and especially teachers.
Democratic legislative leaders helped by making policy deals with Schwarzenegger that took issues off the table that Angelides might have used. Democrats got bond measures for the ballot and a minimum-wage increase -- Schwarzenegger got bipartisan credentials.
Even Google played a role, as its stock gains contributed to a boost in state tax payments that helped the governor deliver a timely budget without making serious cuts.
But Angelides didn't help his own cause by embracing a tax-the-rich platform that many believe doomed his candidacy in the general election even as it helped him win the primary.
He didn't introduce himself to voters with his paid advertising, and voters never bought his attempts to put Schwarzenegger in the same bucket as President Bush.
Angelides political consultant Bill Carrick, who joined the campaign after the primary, said his client never recovered from a brutal contest for the nomination against Controller Steve Westly that tarnished his image and depleted his campaign cash.
"Phil came banged up out of the primary and didn't have any money," Carrick said. In focus groups, he said, Democratic voters were "repeating Westly's ads."
Kaufman said he should have done better given the trouble Schwarzenegger was in after losing everything he proposed in last year's special election.
"We came out of last year with an amazing head of steam," Kaufman said. "Angelides was positioned perfectly to take advantage of that. He had already positioned himself in many ways as the anti-Arnold."
Others said that was precisely the problem, that the lesson from the special election was that state voters want their politicians to work together -- particularly given the partisan climate in Congress. Schwarzenegger absorbed that message and adapted, they said. Angelides did not.
Schwarzenegger strategist Steve Schmidt said voters were turned off by Angelides' partisan crusade.
"That's what people are rejecting in Washington, D.C., and that's what they gave Arnold Schwarzenegger such a big victory for," he said.
Schmidt said the biggest tactical factor was his campaign's decision to go on the air early with ads depicting Angelides as a tax-raiser who would take the state "backward."
"By the July 4 holiday we had largely defined the race," he said. "His campaign had the mistaken impression that voters don't pay attention to political campaigns in the summer."
Garry South, who unsuccessfully sought to defeat Angelides in the Democratic primary, remained convinced that the party's voters simply chose the wrong person.
It wouldn't have been easy for Democrats to beat a sitting governor, especially "when his name is Arnold Schwarzenegger, his name ID is 100 percent, he can raise a lot of money and he put together a crack campaign team."
But he said Angelides didn't even make it a race.
"Phil was the wrong candidate running against the wrong candidate at the wrong time with the wrong campaign on the wrong issues," South said. "I don't know how you can be more wrong than that in a campaign."
About the writer:
The Bee's Amy Chance can be reached at (916) 326-5535 or achance@sacbee.com

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Posted by Peter S. Lopez ~aka Peta
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Humane-Rights-Agenda/


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